Saturday, December 25, 2004

A brief analysis

Ezra at Pandagon is a little worried about this LA Times story. The subtitle of the article reads “[B]eyond the coasts, California is trending Republican.” He blegged for this registration data.

My brief analysis of the data show that the decline in voter registration for both the Democrat party in the period between 2002 and 2004 is only surpassed by the decline between 1974 and 1976 in percentage terms. However, since 1996, California voter registration for both major parties has declined. The Democrats had 56% of the major party registration in 1996 but now only have 55%. So at this rate, the Democrats will have just until about 2044 before there are more Republicans then Democrats in California. Then again, we all know how ridiculous it is to make projections about the 2040’s.


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