We are so Fucked

Brad Delong is wondering whether the US and China will go to war. Of course they will (and the Chinese may not start it due to the changes in US character initiated by Emperor Cuckoo Bananas). This is because, as I explained before, income inequality causes wars. Brad even touches on this concept while bringing up all his wars before 1850. But as I recall, the twentieth century has been known as a century of warfare. Wars are about distracting the masses while they are being robbed by the elites. As long as there is wealth inequality, there will be a need for distraction. And income inequality is accelerating in both China and the US.

In addition, we may not win. Western society has an advantage in innovative and experimental thinking, an advantage in curiosity. This may be enough to win a conflict with Seres. However, while reading Plumer the other day, a quote illustrated the inherent tactical advantage that a highly hierarchical legalistic bureaucratic society would create.

These days, Wal-Mart is concerned that suppliers are getting extremely sophisticated at faking records to show compliance, even coaching workers before inspectors show up.

Living in a country full of imperial officials with a highly centralized bureaucracy that uses long lines of communication to control a large area may tend to reward gifted forgers. A society whose arts are devoted to the realization of some sort of idealized form (e.g. tea ceremony, tai-chi, shi poetry, or calligraphy) is practically practicing the art of forging. This may be why China is the knock-off capital of the world. What useful tactical skill does this translate into? Hacking.

I have long suspected that the next major war between powers will be fought mostly with communications technology. It will be a contest to see who can get their messages to their computer controlled warriors and prevent the other side from getting its messages across to its electronically controlled forces, or in fact hacking the opponent and attacking them with their own weapons. And it seems to me that the Chinese are well equipped in this respect, and the US is especially vulnerable.